## Friday, November 9, 2007

### Weekend Post 11/9

Last week, commenter Josh pointed out the large differential in the score when the Steelers win. 3 of us paid no heed. Then the Steelers went out and stomped the Ravens. My theory of "research is overrated, a 5 year old video game is beating you right now anyway" seems to be shot down, and will be replaced with "change my picks at 4 o'clock on Sunday and hope nobody notices". One interesting trend from our table: when all four of us pick the same team, that team is only 12-19 against the spread, and only 5-15 since week 4. If you're a betting man, picking the Broncos, Rams, Cardinals and Browns probably won't be a bad idea.

On a sidenote, this is the first time Pat is picking his games while sober. Let's see if it gets him back on track.

On to the picks:

The 'Stache Says

Home team in caps

Jacksonville (+4) over TENNESSEE

David Garrard has an outside chance to come back for this game, but I’m going to assume Quinn Gray gets the nod. This is one of those “hunch” picks I get from time to time. By my count, I have a 1-0-1 record on “hunch” picks. On paper, the Titans have the better defense and running game, plus they’re home. The Jaguars are struggling on defense. But they’ll be able to focus on stuffing the run, because the Titans passing attack is brutal. The Jaguars are the more desperate team, because all of the sudden Cleveland is nipping at their heels for the final playoff spot.

KANSAS CITY (-3) over Denver

I can’t believe we lost to Denver. They are falling apart. Their run defense is a joke. Priest Holmes will get the start this week, and I’m anxious to see how he performs. Should be interesting. I don’t see Denver coming into Arrowhead and putting up a fight, not with the way they have been playing. Coming off a blowout loss to Detroit and a devastating defeat at the hands of the Packers, no way am I going with Denver at one of the toughest places to play in the NFL.

MIAMI (+3) over Buffalo

The Bills have to be considered one of the surprise teams this year. A ton of injuries, not that talented to begin with, and they’re in the thick of things with a .500 record. I’m thinking the week off gave the Dolphins a chance to get away from football. Fully refreshed, I’m going to go with the home dog to get their first win against a team that seems to be winning with smoke and mirrors.

PITTSBURGH (-9.5) over Cleveland

I’m not going to lie, I feel very good about this game. That might not be good for the Steelers, because last time I felt good about a game they lost (vs. Denver) and last week I didn’t feel good about the game and they blew out Baltimore. Two of the Browns wins have come against the winless twins (Dolphins and Rams), and neither was in convincing fashion. Their defense is terrible, and their running game is not much better. Anderson, Edwards, and Winslow have been carrying them, but they’re going to get a taste of a real defense this Sunday.

NEW ORLEANS (-11.5) over St. Louis

A couple weeks ago I predicted the Saints, at 1-4, we’re not done and had a chance to still make a run at the NFC South. Now, they are rolling and are only ½ a game out of first place. Brees is playing lights out, they have some semblance of a defense, and if you put a gun to my head and told me to choose as of today who is going to win the NFC South, I’d say the Saints. The Rams suck, and I’m never picking them again. It will be like what I do with the Patriots, only the opposite. I won’t pick them until they get another win against the spread.

Atlanta (+4) over CAROLINA

It’s looks like the Panthers will jump back to Vinny Testaverde this Sunday. You have to consider Carolina as a team that will be looking hard at quarterback in the 1st round of next year’s draft. The Falcons, on the other hand, are coming off a rare win. When I can get points in a game where Vinny Testaverde is quarterbacking the favorite, I’m going to take them.

Maybe Andy Reid should consider taking some time off. Seems like he kind of has a serious situation to deal with at home. I still want to know why Philly is getting this much respect from Vegas. This is, like, three weeks in a row I’ve asked this same question. In the gambling world, the line is a reflection of the home team getting three points. So what Vegas is telling me is that they view the Redskins and Eagles equally. Why? What have the Eagles shown the past couple of weeks?

GREEN BAY (-6) over Minnesota

I fear Adrian Peterson. I don’t know if I’ll ever gamble against the Vikings again, because of him. When I bet on the Bears a couple of weeks ago, Peterson single-handedly killed my bet. And then last week, I was this close to putting money on the Chargers before better judgment got the best of me (It went something like this: (BETTER JUDGEMENT): DON’T BET ON NORV!(ME): Oh yeah, right.) He would have killed me again last week. 296 yards? Damn. But the Vikings aren’t at home this week. The Favre-Driver-Jennings connection is on fire, and the Packers defense is one of the best in the NFL. Brett Favre at home vs. Tarvaris Jackson or Kelly Holcomb on the road. Seems like the line should be a bit higher.

Cincinnati (+4) over BALTIMORE

We know the Bengals defense is terrible. Problem is, the Ravens won’t take advantage of it. Have you ever seen more two yard crossing routes and tight end dump offs than you did Monday night? There is no vertical passing game with this team. NONE. The Bengals, on the other hand, should be able to take advantage of the Ravens secondary woes. And you’re getting 4 points to boot.

Chicago (-3.5) over OAKLAND

I read this week that Lane Kiffin plans on kicking to Devin Hester. And the reasoning is? Yeah, I don’t know either. Kicking to Hester is like Russian roulette. You’re going to get burned eventually. Why even give him the chance? This is, however, going to be a great quarterback matchup. Brian Griese vs. Josh McCown. I bet you will see this game on ESPN Classic ten years from now. Bears defense finally steps up.

NEW YORK GIANTS (+1) over Dallas

One thing the Giants can do is pressure the quarterback, and they can do it only with rushing four. That’s how good Umenyiora and Strahan are. They just might have the blueprint to beat New England. Get pressure with four to rattle Brady, but still be able to maintain your coverage against Moss, Stallworth, and Welker with seven covering. I see something similar this week. It will provide them the luxury to double Owens and still have enough people in coverage to keep tabs on Witten and Crayton. Some running room might be open for the Cowboys, but I don’t know if they have the discipline to stick with it. I get the feeling they want to chuck the ball. Give me the Giants at home.

Detroit (+1) over ARIZONA

All of the sudden, the Lions are running the ball and playing good defense. The schedule is going to get tougher, though. Shaun Rogers and company stuff Edgerrin James, and Kitna and his wide receivers will go to the air against a week Cardinals secondary. Warner is wounded and still immobile, and he’ll be going up against a pretty good pass rush: the Lions are tied for 5th in the NFL in sacks, with 24.

SAN DIEGO (+3.5) over Indianapolis

After a crushing defeat last week, the Colts have to travel cross-country to play on Sunday Night against a team that should be desperate and fired up. I was going to go with Norv last week but smartly backed off. By no means will I place money on this game (because of Norv), but the Chargers definitely have the weapons to keep up with the Colts. If Marvin Harrison can’t go, it makes it that much tougher on Reggie Wayne because teams can just roll coverage to his side. There’s a little bit of bias here, too. I’m going to be rooting for the Chargers, because now we are in a fight with the Colts for the #2 seed. Getting it would be huge, because it would mean Indy would come to Pittsburgh in the 2nd round. And I would like you to imagine how a team that’s built for speed, with guys like Freeney, Mathis, Sanders, Addai, and Wayne would fare on the muddy, shitty Heinz Field turf in mid-January.

San Francisco (+10) over SEATTLE

My, how Monday Night Football has fallen. In-Studio guests who have nothing to do with the game, and crappy matchups like this one. If they can get anyone to watch this crapfest it should be considered a success. Every week, there is one game I don’t feel like writing about. This is it.

Steelers Oriented Purchase You Wouldn't Buy Until You Saw It At Gabe's For $10 "Mike Tomczaks Pocket Rocket 24 volt -$150"

This item can be found on craigslist with the following description: "This used to be former Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback, Mike Tomczaks. It runs but needs a 24 volt charger cord." I know Tomczak went to Ohio State, thus explaining the color scheme, but you think he could've splurged a bit more on the size. It is probably safer than a Suzuki Hayabusa, though.

Thats all I've got, folks. For suggestions on how to fix the Penguins, be sure to read Pat's article below.

End of Post

tecmo said...

Not to pick, but I think Roethlisberger drove (and crashed) a Suzuki Hayabusa.

Just sayin'.

Sam said...

Ah, you're right. I'll change it now. This combined with your weekly MMCNY proves your expertise of all vehicles involved in the crash.

Anonymous said...

I love KC, Dallas, and Arizona.

TEN -4.5
KC -4
MIA +3
PIT -9.5
stl +11.5
atl +4
phi +3
min +6
cin +4.5
chi -3
dal -1
ARI -1
SD +3.5
SEA -10