Saturday, November 17, 2007

Weekend Picks

Guaranteed covers: Jets, Raiders, Broncos

The 'Stache Says

Home team in caps

JACKSONVILLE (-3) over San Diego

Something that hasn’t been mentioned much in the media is the fact that PhilipRivers is quietly having a pretty crappy season. This is the same guy the media was fawning over last season. 1,743 yards, 10 TDs, 10 INTs, and a QB rating of 77.9. Nothing special, indeed. Watching his last game, he could not move his offense at all against the Colts Sunday night. The Jaguars should have David Garrard back, and with him they are a much better football team.

Kansas City (+14.5) over INDIANAPOLIS

Brodie Croyle gets the start for the Chiefs. Probably not a smart idea to back Croyle against Manning at home, but I can’t get past the Colts injury woes. Freeney, Harrison, Ugoh, Clark, Gonzalez. Manning looked human without his regular wideouts, and I’m banking on the Chiefs defense keeping it at least under a 14-point margin.

Oakland (+5.5) over MINNESOTA

If Adrian Peterson were playing this line would be higher. He’s their whole offense. Without him, what do the Vikings really have? I understand Oakland has nothing also, but I’m supposed to back Tarvaris Jackson without AP, and give points? Uh, no thanks.

BALTIMORE (+3) over Cleveland

It’s pretty sad when Kyle Boller is considered an improvement, but that’s what he is at QB for the Ravens. He can at least threaten a defense with the deep ball. The Ravens defense did a complete 180 last week, as they actually showed up to prevent the Bengals from scoring any TDs. Spearheaded by that D, I think the Ravens rise up and muster a little pride to save their season. They’re going to be up for this game after their last meeting with the Browns, and they’ll have the home crowd, too.

Pittsburgh (-9.5) over NEW YORK JETS

I hate games like this because nothing good can come out of them. If we blow them out, great, that’s what we’re supposed to do. If we barely win, or god forbid lose this game, everyone will be all over us. There are two things that can cause the Steelers to lose this game: turnovers and Leon Washington. First, protect the football. Don’t give the Jets any short fields or cheap TDs, and we’ll be fine. They don’t have near the talent to keep up with us. Washington has 3 return TDs. Same concept here. Don’t let him give the Jets good field position (or worse, a TD). If their offense has to drive the majority of the field against the Steelers D, they aren’t going to win. Make them earn their points. Protect the football, and coverage teams: Get your head out of your ass. That’s the key to winning this week.

ATLANTA (+3) over Tampa Bay

Based on this line, Vegas feels the Falcons and Buccaneers are even. I don’t feel this way. The Buccaneers are the better football team. But I actually think the home crowd carries the Falcons. They’re coming off a pretty nice win against Carolina, and if they win this game all of the sudden they are one game back of the division lead. The Falcons should play inspired ball.

Arizona (+3) over CINCINNATI

The Cardinals defense is a bit underrated, I feel. They are giving up 21 points a game, but they are 9th in total yards allowed and in the top 10 in terms of sacks. The Bengals offense stalled in the red zone against the Ravens, but Baltimore could never capitalize on these defensive stands because they have no offense. Arizona does, and they have Boldin and Fitzgerald to abuse the Bengals sorry secondary.

PHILADELPHIA (-10) over Miami

Rookie John Beck gets the start at QB for the Dolphins, and I’m not sure this is the best game for him to do so. For the most part the Eagles defense has been lousy, but their defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is renowned for his heavy blitz principles. Beck is going to come under heavy fire, and for a rookie making his first start this is going to lead to mistakes.

New England (-16) over BUFFALO

Over the bye week I heard that Tedy Bruschi saved a baby from a burning house, found a cure for AIDS, and ran a marathon. All in one hour. The Bills are going to be missing their main offensive weapon in Marshawn Lynch. I just don’t feel good about going against the Patriots. Maybe one week when they are favored by –30 (which could happen when the Dolphins come to Foxboro, probably not though), I’ll go against them. I learned my lesson when I took the Redskins a couple weeks ago, and they blew them out 52-7.

DALLAS (-10.5) over Washington

Thanks, Washington. A certain individual had money on you, and you had everything under control. And then you let the Eagles score three 4th quarter touchdowns. The Cowboys are just destroying opponents right now, and I don’t see why this week should be any different, especially since they are home.

HOUSTON (-1) over New Orleans

The Texans get Andre Johnson back, and that is huge. They had a pretty good offense the first few weeks, and then he got injured and everything fell apart. Meanwhile, the Saints teased us, and then they went out and laid an egg at home against the Rams. They play in the shitty NFC South, so they are definitely still in it. But the return of Johnson is really pushing me towards the Texans.

Carolina (+9.5) over GREEN BAY

I have this feeling that the Packers are due for a let down game. I don’t know why, but I think it’s coming this week. Which means the Packers will probably win 41-0. Yes, I am aware I am backing Vinny Testaverde on the road, against a team that is 8-1. Don’t ask me why.

New York Giants (+3) over DETROIT

The Lions have to be one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. One week, they look great. The next, they look terrible. The Giants D-line versus the Lions O-line is going to be a huge mismatch. It’s the league leaders in sacks versus the league leaders in sacks allowed. Kitna is going to be running for his life.

SAN FRANCISCO (+2.5) over St. Louis

The 49ers suck. The Rams suck. I don’t want to talk about this game anymore.

SEATTLE (-5.5) over Chicago

It’s the return of Rex Grossman. Now he gets to start in one of the most hostile stadiums in the NFL. The Seahawks are also getting Deion Branch back, and Maurice Morris looks to be an upgrade over Shaun Alexander. Worse decision: the Seahawks signing Shaun Alexander to a huge extension or the Dolphins signing Joey Porter to a huge free agent deal?

Tennessee (+2) over DENVER

Losing Albert Haynesworth was a huge blow to the Titans defense last week. He is one of the best defensive tackles in the game, and was arguably in the race for defensive MVP. It doesn’t look like he’ll be back this week. I think the Titans will be able to control the ball with their offense though. They want to run it, and Denver is just the team to run it against. All Vince Young has to do is make a couple of plays here and there, and the Titans should escape with a victory.

End of Post


Anonymous said...

But Philip Rivers is clearly a better QB than Big Ben. Just ask Peter King.

Anonymous said...

How bout dem Cowboys! oh and Steelers too.