Friday, October 26, 2007

Weekend Picks

I don't want to call this a weekend post because I did not have time to fully cover the weekend. I did have time to make the pick table, however, complete with the picks for the big match up tomorrow.

The 'Stache Says:

Home team in caps

ST. LOUIS (+3) over Cleveland

The Rams are hurting. Their O-line is in shambles, and as an added bonus, their best defensive player, Leonard Little, will be out. But they have to win a game at some point, and they have played their last two opponents tough at home. Sure, the Rams will probably add another L to my loss column, but I’m going back for my crack fix.

Detroit (+5) over CHICAGO

Brian Griese saved the Bears season last week as he engineered a 97-yard drive in the closing minutes. Still, the Lions are getting the same number of points the Vikings got when they played the Bears at Soldier Field, and Detroit is a better team than Minnesota. The Bears defense got it together last week, but they’ll be facing a much better offense this Sunday.

Indianapolis (-7) over CAROLINA

At you can see the betting trends for each game. 99% of the money bet at Sportsbook’s website has gone on the Colts. 99%! Astounding. Maybe they should move the line up a bit. You have to outscore the Colts to win, and I’m not trusting either David Carr or Vinny Testaverde to outscore Peyton Manning. The Colts will play the cover 2 defense to keep everything in front of them and not allow the long ball to Steve Smith.

NEW YORK GIANTS (-10) over Miami

Technically, the Giants are the home team even though this game is being played in London. In the span of one week, the Dolphins lost their top two offensive weapons (Ronnie Brown to injury and Chris Chambers to a trade). Meanwhile, the Giants are playing some of the best football in the NFL. Look for Osi and Strahan to wreak havoc on Miami’s suspect offensive line.

Oakland (+7.5) over TENNESSEE

Vince Young will be back, but how mobile will he be. The ½ point is big here, because I could definitely see the Titans winning this game by a touchdown. This game will be a defensive struggle, which means I’m taking the points.

MINNESOTA (+1) over Philadelphia

The Eagles are getting too much respect from Vegas. They’re not a very good team, yet they are road favorites. That loss last week has to be deflating, and they’ll be traveling to the Metrodome which is a tough place to play. As an added bonus, Brian Dawkins is out for this game, which is good for the Vikings. Tarvaris Jackson also may not play, which is also good for the Vikings.

Pittsburgh (-3.5) over CINCINNATI

This is a game I expect Tomlin to have the team fired up for. They just got embarrassed on national TV, so I think he’ll use that to light a fire under their ass. The Bengals D is awful. We should be able to run the ball at will against them. Pound the ball, then hit them over the top with the play-action. Cincinnati has a lot of gamblers in the secondary, so they’re susceptible to the play-action pass.

NEW YORK JETS (-3) over Buffalo

Much like the Rams, the Jets are another team I pick every week that’s always good for a loss. Yet I come back for more. Pennington was actually playing decently last week before falling apart at the end. Buffalo is a much better team at home. If this game was at Ralph Wilson Stadium and the Bills were favored by –3, I’d probably take them. But it’s not.

Houston (+9.5) over SAN DIEGO

Who knows where this game is going to be played. You have to figure the Chargers are dealing with a lot of distractions, and lest I remind you again, they’re being coached by Norv Turner. Give me the Texans and the 9.5 points.

TAMPA BAY (-4) over Jacksonville

Quinn Gray will get the start for Jacksonville, and anyone who watched him fill in for David Garrard Monday night knows that he sucks. Jeff Garcia, on the other hand, is playing great football, and the Buccaneers are home.

New Orleans (-3) over SAN FRANCISCO

The 49ers offense is terrible. Just awful. The Saints didn’t exactly play inspired football last week, barely eeking out a win against the lowly Falcons. Slowly but surely the Saints are building a little momentum, though, and I think their offense can outscore the 49ers lame offense by more than three.

NEW ENGLAND (-16.5) over Washington

I learned my lesson. Never bet against the Patriots. These lines are getting ridiculous, though. Giving 16.5 points to the Redskins? If it were anyone else but the Patriots I’d be jumping all over the Redskins. I look back at the week
1 lines, and I can only laugh that the Patriots were only favored by 7 against the Jets and all of us, save for Sam, took the Jets.

Green Bay (+3) over DENVER

Are the Broncos back? I don’t think so. I think they just got lucky that we had such a shitty gameplan. I still don’t know how Cutler shredded us, but I don’t think he’ll do the same to the Packers, who have a quality cornerback duo in Al Harris and Charles Woodson.

Hope everyone has a great weekend. Look for Pat and I in the student section. We'll be wearing white.

End of Post

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Actually, Miami is the home team, which was something of a mercy act for South Florida. Good luck and GO STEELERS!

STL +3
CHI -5
ind -6.5
MIA +9.5
TEN -7.5
MIN +1
pit -3.5
buf +3.5
hou +10
jax +4
SF +2.5
was +16
gb +3