Friday, September 28, 2007

NFL Picks: Week 4

Last week as predicted didn't go well for the humans on the pick table. I want to thank tecmo_bowl_bo_jackson of PSaMP once again for his picks and for not dominating, like he usually does, by going 6-7. This week we have TAS, from the blog Sports Fountainhead. It is difficult to classify the fountainhead, but I would call it a Pennsylvania sports blog with a concentration on all of college football. Definitely a worthy read.

Pat continues to dominate, the guy has yet to have a sub-.500 week. Mark Anthony is making a comeback into the middle of the pack, and the Dreamcast made a huge push last week. After the table, the 'stache gives you his explanations for his picks.

The 'Stache Says:

Oakland (+4) over Miami
The cross country flight for Oakland does concern me. It’s never easy to do that and play good football on the road. Nonetheless, I think Daunte Culpepper may have a chip on his shoulder for this game. Oakland is just playing better football right now.

Houston (-3) over Atlanta
All sorts of turmoil in Atlanta, with the DeAngelo Hall saga being the latest. Last week, I thought the Colts would dominate the Texans due to the absence of Andre Johnson. Instead, the Texans hung around and took the Colts best shot. Color me impressed.

Baltimore (-4.5) over Cleveland
My Super Bowl pick has been decimated by injuries. Jonathan Ogden went down. Trevor Pryce went down. Steve McNair is gimpy again (though I should have seen that one coming). Ray Lewis is basically playing with one arm. Derek Anderson doesn’t get to face the Bengals defense every week. He’ll crumble in front of the Ravens D, and the chants for Brady Quinn will begin again.

Chicago (-3) over Detroit
Yes, it’s true. I’m picking against the Lions. It had to happen at some point. In all honesty, I jumped back and forth on this one. I think Grossman is terrible, and with the insertion of Brian Griese, that was one mitigating factor in picking the Bears. I don’t think Griese is all that great, but he’ll provide a spark for the first few weeks. The Bears could be playing without both their starting cornerbacks, which is a recipe for disaster again the Lions. But then again, Calvin Johnson is also supposed to miss the game as well.

Minnesota (+1.5) over Green Bay
I think the Packers come back to earth this week. Minnesota’s defense is very good, and Favre has always struggled at the Metrodome. Adrian Peterson provides just enough offense and Tarvaris Jackson isn’t able to mess things up, as he continues to give way to Kelly Holcomb due to injury.

St. Louis (+13) over Dallas
This is it. I am fucking done picking St. Louis after this week if they don’t give me a win against the spread. I have picked them the last three weeks, and all three weeks I’ve lost. This Dallas team is good, and I know Steven Jackson is out this week, but I don’t like giving away this many points in any NFL game.

New York Jets (-3.5) over Buffalo
Buffalo is hurting. I mean they are really hurting. Can they even field a team anymore? Rookie QB Trent Edwards get the start for the Bills, and I have a feeling Mangini and company will provide him with a rude awakening.

Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay
Every week, I place a little money on one or two NFL games. Let me tell you point blank, I will NEVER place money on any game involving Carolina. They are the most inconsistent team I’ve ever seen. One week, they’ll play like Super Bowl contenders. The next they’ll play like shit. This week, I don’t think they play like shit. Don’t ask me why. I can’t figure this team out, so I’m just guessing.

San Francisco (+2) over Seattle
I think San Francisco is better than what they showed last week against the Steelers. I love Frank Gore, and I think Alex Smith will actually be a decent quarterback once they get him some competent receivers. Seattle at home is good. Seattle on the road is dicey, and I don’t particularly like their defense. Give me the home dog.

Pittsburgh (-6) over Arizona
The whole “Whisenhunt will know our offensive scheme” thinking is overblown. The offense as a whole has changed too much for Whisenhunt’s knowledge to be effective. Will he have some knowledge about individual players strengths and weaknesses? Yeah. But not enough to close the gap of talent between these two teams. I hope Leinart plays most of the game. Warner is capable of still picking apart a defense, if he has time.

Kansas City (+12) over San Diego
Sorry, I’m never laying 12 points and going with a Norv Turner led football team. I don’t care if that team has Joe Montana at quarterback, Walter Payton at runningback, Jerry Rice at wide receiver, and Lawrence Taylor on defense. No go. Turner has the reverse Midas touch. Every team where he becomes head coach, that team turns to shit. The Chiefs D is playing well enough to keep it close.

Indianapolis (-9.5) over Denver
Indy at home is tough. They’ve always smacked around Denver, and to tell you the truth the Broncos aren’t exactly playing inspired ball right now. As I said, I usually don’t like giving away this many points, and if this game were in Denver I might pick the Broncos to win outright. But Indy is just a much different team at home with the loud crowd and that fast track.

New York Giants (+2.5) over Philadelphia
One of the toughest games on the board. If Plaxico Burress doesn’t play it really restricts what the Giants can do on offense. Philly is coming off a dominating performance against the Lions, but the Giants defense showed a little life at the end of their game last week against the Redskins (with a little help from terrible Redskins clock management). Playing at home, give me the points and the Giants.

New England (-7) over Cincinnati
See Tom Brady. See Randy Moss. See Tom Brady and Randy Moss tear the Bengals defense a new asshole. This could get ugly. If Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, and Jamal Lewis can hang 51 on the Bengals, what can Brady, Moss, and Laurence Maroney do?

Steelers vs Cardinals: Just Chillin' Competition
Each week I'll find a picture of a player from each team just chillin'. The one relaxing the best will win, and I will use this as my pick for the game.

This Week: Right Tackle

Levi Brown


Willie Colon

When I found Levi's picture, I thought he had a great chance at winning, then I found Willie's myspace page. The guy likes to chill. The rope and uke make Levi look like a fun guy to hang out with, but you can't beat a guy with cigar smoke emanating from his mouth. Plus, the blue suit pushes it to a new level.

Winner: Steelers

Updates coming later.

End of Post



Dave Wannstache said...

Looking at the final table, it seems like I'm flying solo for quite a few games. This could be a make or break week for me.

On another note, I'm actually thinking of doing a three team teaser this week: Raiders, Colts, and Patriots. Anyone want to talk me out of it?

Anonymous said...

Teaser? If you had any balls you'd make it a three team parlay.

I'd go Oakland, Philly, and Colts. McNabb has traditionally lit up the Giants, and their defense is even worse this year. How far do you move the line on your teasers...7? You think if the Giants beat the Eagles it will be by more than 4?

The Patriots will cover the 7.5 spread or lose. I don't think adding the 7 points really helps you there.

I Want To Fight Tom Brady said...

"The cross country flight for Oakland does concern me. It’s never easy to do that and play good football on the road."

Who are you? Keyshawn Johnson? Come on, it's not like you played in the NFL 'Stache....