Friday, September 21, 2007

Expanded NFL Picks

Very late on the picks today, but thankfully a very hectic week is over. When I was putting in everyone's picks I found it interesting the amount of agreement we had this week compared to last. In fact, with five people who made picks this week, only 2 games had a 3-2 split. Maybe we think we know a bit more about the 2007 versions of these teams after 2 weeks, maybe its random, but for some reason I have a feeling this could be a bad week for all of us. Joining us this week in one of the celebrity columns is tecmo_bowl_bo_jackson from Pittsburgh Sports and Mini Ponies. We thank you for your picks, sir. Also, I've included explanations of my choices after the table. I thought this weekly post needed a bit more substance. Last thing: The weather for each game is not updated yet, so don't plan you're picnic around it.






Pittsburgh (-9) over San Francisco
I've decided I'm going to keep on picking the Steelers until they don't cover. I thought 9 points was a bit too high, but I also feel like we match up extremely well with the 9ers with the exception of Vernon Davis. Frank Gore is an absolute beast, but when is the last time a touted running back really lived up to his billing when he played us? I remember the Sunday night game against the Chargers last year as the last time we've played a true stub RB, and LT only gained 36 yards on 13 carries. Phil Rivers also torched us in that game, but I don't think Alex Smith brings that same passing talent. Smith could give us trouble with his elusiveness. The defense is predicated on getting to the QB and bringing him down quickly. Although I've been ecstatic with the way our DBs have been playing, they can only hold their coverage for so long, and Smith does have the ability to make a few guys miss to buy some time and find an open receiver. Even with this, 24-14 sounded like the right score.

Indianapolis (-6) over Houston
I've picked wrong so far in both of Indy's games, so I don't know how I feel about this one. I love Matt Schaub and feel like he has the potential to lead the upset, but without Andre Johnson the Colts should be able to crowd the box against an aging Ahman Green. If Houston can somehow maintain a somewhat potent passing attack with preseason sensation Jacoby Jones, I think they'll at least cover and have a good shot at winning, otherwise the Colts will win by 13.

San Diego (-5) over Green Bay
While watching the Steelers blow out two completely over matched opponents, I began to wonder how much of an influence Tomlin has had so far. He inherited a boatload of talent and the players are for the most part sly veterans who had a chip on their collective shoulder from last year. How could anyone screw up in this situation? Then you watch Norv Turner and understand how. Still, I have a feeling the players won't be messing around this week. Green Bay is a solid team, but solid teams in the NFC are bottom feeders in the AFC. 31-17 San Diego.

Minnesota (+3) over Kansas City
Both these teams are 1-dimensional on offense, with QBs who could easily throw the game away at any moment. The Vikings have scored 3 times on defense already, I expect another 3 during this game. 21-7 Vikings.

Philadelphia (-6) over Detroit
I have three reasons for making this pick. 1.) To spite the 'stache. 2.) I have McNabb on my fantasy team and would rather enjoy a breakout game. 3.) Detroit has played two teams in Oakland and Minnesota that did not really test them. (I know, Oakland is my underdog pick for the year, but I thought it was Daunte Culpepper's Raiders....I still think they'll come on strong). The Detroit defense is exactly what McNabb needs to get on track.

...

Ok, you got me, the only reason I picked the Eagles was to spite the 'stache. 35-27 Eagles

Buffalo (+16.5) over New England
At first, I thought 16.5 sounded just about right, but there are few teams who could stand to improve/worsen than these two teams. The Bills will have a great game, and the Patriots will have an off game and still win, just not by 17. 28-13 Patriots.

New York Jets (-3) over Miami
For some reason, and I get the feeling based on my compatriots' picks that they agree with me, I decided the Jets are better than what they're showing. I like Clemens at QB, at least he gives hope for the future. Miami is a team going nowhere, I would detest being one of their fans. They remind me of the 2003 Pirates, who trotted out aging veterans like Reggie Sanders, Kenny Lofton, Randall Simon, and Fatt Stairs. Sure, they won 75 games, the most since 99', but what did it get us? The drafting of Ginn was a Bonifay/Littlefield-esq move. 20-9 Jets.

Arizona (-8) over Baltimore
(In my best Pete Prisco imitation) The hunch is that the Cardinals will surprise. Baltimore has had trouble the past few games. Arizona won last week. Matt Leinart is a quarterback. Which should be just enough. 23-20 Cardinals.

Tampa Bay (-3.5) over St. Louis
I'm going to be honest, I don't know too much about either team. Tampa did hold two good-on-paper offenses to 20 points (Sea.) and 14 points (N.O.), but as Lee Flowers pointed out, paper championships don't mean squat. Still, St. Louis has failed to cover yet, so I'll ride that for another week.

Denver (-3) over Jacksonville
Two overrated teams left me in quite a conundrum. Denver has just been squirting by, but the Jags have looked downright horrible on offense; I almost thought about calling the push. Then I remembered Mike Shanahan is the squirreliest guy in the NFL. His offensive lineman destroy knees, and he abused the timeout rule at the end of last weeks game. Basically, he'll take a bat to the knees of Jack Del Rio if he has to. You can't bet against that kind of tomfoolery. 12-3 Denver.

Seattle (-3.5) over Cincinnati
Easiest pick of the week. The difference between the offenses is much smaller than the differences between the defenses. As simple as that. How do bookies make money again? 40-27 Seahawks.

Oakland (-3) over Cleveland
Derek Anderson is going to come out throwing, overconfident from his last game, which means a pick six will happen in this game. This may be the crappiest match up on the slate. I got really excited because I thought PiSoNC and Pat would have had to watch this game instead of the Steelers because of their geographical locations, but the game is at 4. Lucky. 17-3 Oakland

Carolina (-4) over Atlanta
Joey Harrington's confidence has just dropped from around 3/10 to -6/10 with the acquisition of Leftwich. It will show on the field, and they'll probably have to put in Matt Schaub. Oops. 23-10 Carolina

Washington (-4) over New York Giants
If they were playing on a neutral field the Redskins would only be favored by a point. Let's review, using the Eagles as a guide. Green Bay beat the Eagles on a last second FG to win 16-13. The Redskins beat the Eagles quite handily 20-12, in Philly mind you. Green Bay would have been favored against the Giants by 2 points if the game was played at a neutral site, but the Redskins only get 1 point. So you see there is logic to my gambling, but that doesn't mean it's right. 28-21 Redskins.

Dallas (+3) over Chicago
I have a friend who is a huge Cowboys fan. He's from Scranton, so he has no business being a fan of anything but the Eagles, Giants, or Jenna Fischer. Anyway, he knows his stuff, and tells me the Cowboys are going to score 28 points. Although this is his first prediction, he has never been wrong. 28-17 Cowboys.

New Orleans (-4.5) over Tennessee
4.5 seems way too high, and this column is way too long. I'm giving this one the San Diego treatment though... the stars on the Saints will play well enough to overcome their past adversity. It's essentially must win. New Orleans 33-23.

End of Post

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Let me know if you need to borrow any money this week, Wanny. I wouldn't want your bookie to have to break your legs after you go 2-11.

Dave Wannstache said...

Haha, I might just need that. Yikes, was this a bad start for me. I told Sam and PiSoNC I had a bad feeling about these games this week, and evidently I was right.

On another note, I'd like to thank the Colts for not being able to cover the spread. I had money on them at -6.5, and they were up 27-10 at one point. Motherfuckers.

Pat said...

Rough week here as well. Thankfully I decided 10 minutes before game time that the Eagles were going to hammer the Lions and called my bookie (who's name rhymes with Tave Lawnstache) to get me off the bet.